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Tag Archive | "match previews"

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The Best Organic Surface Player

Posted on 02 July 2010 by Craig Hickman

by peytonallen

Serbian player Novak Djokovic's racket is pictured after he hit a  chair during play against  Czech player Tomas Berdych during the men's  semi-final match in the Wimbledon Tennis Championships at the All  England Tennis Club, in southwest London on on July 2,  2010.
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The Joker was overcome by nerves. He rarely went for his shots which was surprising. He seemed content to just get balls back in play and hope Tomas [Berdych] missed. [Novak Djokovic] seemed swallowed whole by the occasion. Hats off to Berdych. Nice to see a new face in a slam final.

Tomas Berdych of the Czech Republic reacts as he wins his men's  singles semifinal against Serbia's Novak Djokovic, on the Centre Court  at the All England Lawn Tennis Championships at Wimbledon, Friday, July  2, 2010.
AP

Not sure how much of a chance he has Sunday. I said earlier this year [Rafael] Nadal's comeback wouldn't start until he got back onto the salt of the Earth. He seems poised to take the Euro double again and as Craig said he's hands down the best organic surface player, maybe since Borg. It's stunning to think about the '07 Wimby final, or even the '06. He's a few points away from going for his 3rd or 4th title right now.

For as much talk about the future of tennis being giant men flinging new age rackets with ease, there's a great percentage the first three slams of the year will still be won by Nadal and Roger Federer.

I don't think the second semifinal was as close as the score indicated. [Andy] Murray served out of his head to keep both sets close. But really for three sets once the rally was even it was all Nadal all day. He brutalized Murray with that lefty forehand. Down the line, hooked cross-court, the depth, the power, the sheer confidence the stroke was hit with today was stunning.

Nobody moves as well on grass as Nadal does right now, and maybe nobody volleys as well. From ball one he was the aggressor.

Britain's Andy Murray holds his head during a press conference  after his defeat to Spain's Rafael Nadal in their men's semifinal at  theat the All England Lawn Tennis Championships at Wimbledon, Friday,  July 2, 2010.
AP

Andy did not play poorly, but its clear he doesn't have a weapon off the baseline. I agree with [graf_sampras], it's a great crowd and they deserve to have a champion and one day Andy will take home a Major title, but right now he's simply not in the same grass court league as Rafa is in.

I don't think a lot of pundits really realize how great Nadal is on this surface. The crew, sans Bee Jay [Brad Gilbert] (quiet Craig), all went with Murray. And I don't see NBC pushing the story of Rafa engaging in a true defense of his title. What if he played last year? What if they had a roof in '07? I know tennis can write a different history with 'what if's' but Rafa has been the best player at this event for some time now. If he wins Sunday will people finally admit as much?

Berdych has a puncher's chance, but Rafa has improved with every match, and when he unleashed the running, leaping fist pump in round 2 I knew he was locked in mentally. He wants this title and Sunday he gets it.

Spain's Rafael Nadal lies on the court after defeating Britain's  Andy Murray, in their men's singles semifinal on the Centre Court at the  All England Lawn Tennis Championships at Wimbledon, Friday, July 2,  2010.
AP

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Wimbledon 2010 Middle Sunday Tirade

Posted on 27 June 2010 by Craig Hickman

by Craig Hickman

LONDON, ENGLAND - JUNE 26:  A ball girl on Central Court on Day Six  of the Wimbledon Lawn Tennis Championships at the All England Lawn  Tennis and Croquet Club on June 26, 2010 in London, England.
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Not a tirade at all. Just a bit of melodrama to perk up your ears. Not as though I have a whole lot to say, mind you. But it's Wimbledon. My favorite tournament. I ought to, no?

It was an eventful week. The Queen of England made a rare appearance. Defending champion Roger Federer almost lost in the first round. (Lleyton Hewitt had to be praying.) Victoria Azarenka keeps proving me right. Andy Roddick keeps proving me wrong. Victor Hanescu was defaulted after losing his mind because a fan was allowed to keep insulting his sick mother and he wasn't having it. Svetlana Kuznetsova's slide continues. Unheralded 29-year-old Jurgen Melzer is into the second week of a Slam for the second consecutive Slam for the first two times is his career. Unheralded 23-year-old Jarmila Groth is into the second week of a Slam for the second consecutive Slam for the first two times in her career. And John Isner and Nicolas Mahut played such a legendary match that it ended up as the No. 1 segment on Countdown with Keith Olbermann after it finally finished 70-68 in the final set. 70-68.

I still can't wrap my mind around that.


I can wrap my mind around this, though: the round of 16 match between Tsvetana Pironkova and Marion Bartoli steals the show for the most anticipated round of 16 match in either draw.

I'm serious.

See, Pironkova is a pit bull who can hit the cover off the ball as well as anyone. But she's frail. Unless she's not. Then, she'll kick you in your teeth no matter what your name. Love. That.

LONDON, ENGLAND - JUNE 26:  Court detail of a ball boy's sweat band  on Day Six of the Wimbledon Lawn Tennis Championships at the All  England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club on June 26, 2010 in London,  England.
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Bartoli is, well, Bartoli. Grass is her favorite surface. When's she's firing on all cylinders, well. I will never forget the way she tore apart Justine Henin the last time Henin played this event back in oh-seven. I'll never forget the extended ovation the fans extended to a player who put on one of the best grass-court displays for the better part of two sets that the stadium had ever seen. I'll never forget how I felt that I'd just seen something utterly remarkable.
,
I'm serious.

Not because I think it takes some superhuman feat to beat Henin on grass. It doesn't. But the way Bartoli went about it can only be appreciated for its remarkability in the witnessing. I really can't begin to describe it.

I understood the fan's extended ovation.

So.

If both of these players bring their A-games and compete as though their egos depend upon it, then we're in for something special. Remarkable. Unpredictable.

If I had to pick a match on the men's side that had the potential to produce the kind of fireworks mentioned above, I would pick, half-halfheartedly, the tussle between Paul-Henri Mathieu and Rafael Nadal. Though I do find it intriguing that Federer and Melzer have never played before....

This is your Wimbledon 2010 Day 7 Open Thread.

LONDON, ENGLAND - JUNE 26:  Court detail of a net on Day Six of the  Wimbledon Lawn Tennis Championships at the All England Lawn Tennis and  Croquet Club on June 26, 2010 in London, England.
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Order of Play for Monday 28 June 2010

CENTRE - SHOW COURT - 1.00 PM START

1. Roger Federer (SUI) [1] vs Jurgen Melzer (AUT) [16]
2. Serena Williams (USA) [1] vs Maria Sharapova (RUS) [16]
3. Sam Querrey (USA) [18] vs Andy Murray (GBR) [4]

COURT 1 - SHOW COURT - 1.00 PM START

1. Kim Clijsters (BEL) [8] vs Justine Henin (BEL) [17]
2. Novak Djokovic (SRB) [3] vs Lleyton Hewitt (AUS) [15]
3. Paul-Henri Mathieu (FRA) vs Rafael Nadal (ESP) [2]

COURT 2 - SHOW COURT - 12.00 NOON START

1. Jarmila Groth (AUS) vs Venus Williams (USA) [2]
2. Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) [3] vs Petra Kvitova (CZE)
3. Yen-Hsun Lu (TPE) vs Andy Roddick (USA) [5]

COURT 12 - SHOW COURT - 12.00 NOON START

1. Vera Zvonareva (RUS) [21] vs Jelena Jankovic (SRB) [4]
2. Julien Benneteau (FRA) [32] vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA) [10]
3. Robin Soderling (SWE) [6] vs David Ferrer (ESP) [9]

COURT 18 - SHOW COURT - 12.00 NOON START

1. Na Li (CHN) [9] vs Agnieszka Radwanska (POL) [7]
2. Tomas Berdych (CZE) [12] vs Daniel Brands (GER)

COURT 5 - SHOW COURT - 12.00 NOON START

1. Tsvetana Pironkova (BUL) vs Marion Bartoli (FRA) [11]
2. Klara Zakopalova (CZE) vs Kaia Kanepi (EST)

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Roland Garros 2010 Day 10 Order Of Play

Posted on 01 June 2010 by Craig Hickman

Spain's Nicolas Almagro eyes the ball after he served to Spain's  Fernando Verdasco  during their men's fourth round match in the French  Open tennis championship at the Roland Garros stadium, on May 31, 2010,  in Paris.
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Spain's Nicolas Almagro eyes the ball after hitting a forehand to Spain's Fernando Verdasco during their men's fourth round match in the French Open tennis championship at the Roland Garros stadium, on May 31, 2010, in Paris.

::

We have arrived at the final eight. MadProfessah has posted his predictions and we'll talk about them here as the action unfolds.

Conventional wisdom states that Elena Dementieva is the best active player on the WTA never to have won a slam. I reject that. That honor goes to Miss Nadia Petrova. No, she's never been to a Slam final, never won an Olympic Gold, but she has the most talent and most complete game of the non-Slam winners in the women's field. And she can serve. We know what her deadliest weakness is and I, for one, am hoping she can smother it this week and make her first Slam final.

I'm also rooting for Francesca Schiavone, one of the most imaginative players on the tour who fights to the bigger end. She'll have her work cut out for her against the backboard that his Caroline Wozniacki, but if the veteran can frustrate the youngster enough, she'll advance to her first Slam semifinal in the latter days of her career. What a story that would be.

As for the men, it probably goes without saying but I'll say it anyway: I wanna see Robin Söderling play Tomas Berdych in the semifinals. Let it be, let it be.

Schedule for Day 10: Tuesday, 1 June 2010

Court Philippe Chatrier 14:00 Start Time
1. Women's Singles - Quarterfinals
Francesca Schiavone (ITA)[17] v. Caroline Wozniacki (DEN)[3]
2. Men's Singles - Quarterfinals
Roger Federer (SUI)[1] v. Robin Soderling (SWE)[5]
3. Men's Doubles - Fourth Round
Marc Lopez (ESP)/Pere Riba (ESP) v. Wesley Moodie (RSA)/Dick Norman (BEL)[4]

Court Suzanne Lenglen 14:00 Start Time
1. Women's Singles - Quarterfinals
Elena Dementieva (RUS)[5] v. Nadia Petrova (RUS)[19]
2. Men's Singles - Quarterfinals
Tomas Berdych (CZE)[15] v. Mikhail Youzhny (RUS)[11]
3. Men's Doubles - Fourth Round
Lukasz Kubot (POL)/Oliver Marach (AUT)[6] v. Daniel Nestor (CAN)/Nenad Zimonjic (SRB)[2]

Court 1 11:00 Start Time
1. Men's Doubles - Fourth Round
Lukas Dlouhy (CZE)/Leander Paes (IND)[3] v. Mariusz Fyrstenberg (POL)/Marcin Matkowski (POL)[8]
2. Women's Doubles - Fourth Round
Monica Niculescu (ROU)/Shahar Peer (ISR) v. Nuria Llagostera Vives (ESP)/Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez (ESP)[2]
3. Mixed Doubles - Third Round
Vania King (USA)/Christopher Kas (GER) v. Tathiana Garbin (ITA)/Marcin Matkowski (POL)
4. Women's Doubles - Fourth Round
Kveta Peschke (CZE)/Katarina Srebotnik (SLO)[12] v. Alona Bondarenko (UKR)/Kateryna Bondarenko (UKR)

Court 2 11:00 Start Time
1. Men's Doubles - Fourth Round
Marcelo Melo (BRA)/Bruno Soares (BRA) v. Julian Knowle (AUT)/Andy Ram (ISR)[10]
2. Girls' Singles - Second Round
Nastja Kolar (SLO)[4] v. Charlene Seateun (FRA)
3. Mixed Doubles - Third Round
Yaroslava Shvedova (KAZ)/Julian Knowle (AUT) v. Cara Black (ZIM)/Leander Paes (IND)[2]

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Roland Garros 2010 Women’s Quarterfinals

Posted on 31 May 2010 by Mad Professah

By MadProfessah

Here are my predictions for the women's quarterfinals at Roland Garros this year.

Serena Williams USA (1) vs. Samantha Stosur AUS (7) Justine Henin BEL (22). For the second year in a row, the winner of the tournament will be decided in the quarterfinal in which Serena Williams competes. Last year, Serena lost a nervy, tension-filled (frankly, ugly) quarterfinal match to eventual champion, Russian Svetlana Kuznetsova. This year instead of playing the 4-time Roland Garros champion Henin (who had a 24-match winning streak since Tathiana Garbin beat the 2003 defending champion in the second round at this tournament in 2004) Serena will face last year's semifinalist Samantha Stosur. The Serena-Justine showdown had been the most anticipated match on either side of the draw, even in a section of the draw called the "quarter of death" by Brad Gilbert. However, thanks to the hard-hitting, brilliant-serving Sam Stosur, that storyline is now dismissed from the tournament. Serena and Sam have only played four times (all on hard courts) with Stosur winning once, in Stanford last year. Serena is a woman on a mission, and will not be denied her chance to reach another Roland Garros final. PREDICTION: Serena in 3 sets.

Yaroslava Shvedova KAZ vs. Jelena Jankovic SRB (4). Surely Jelena Jankovic is too strong a defensive player to go through her entire career without winning a major? She made it to the 2008 U.S. Open final (losing to Serena in two close sets) but I believe that it is clay where her particular skills should be rewarded the most. Following that first major final Jankovic fell into a major downward spiral (although not as precipitous a decline as her Serbian countrywoman Ana Ivanovic, who although she possesses the 2008 French Open title still does not own a reliable second (or first) serve.) Jankovic has played well on clay this year, having beaten both Williams sisters on her way to the Rome final (which she lost). She should seize on the good fortune of not being in the "quarter of death" and sneak into her second major final. PREDICTION: Jankovic in 2 sets.

Francesca Schiavone ITA (17) vs. Caroline Wozniacki DEN (3). Wozniacki can regain the World #2 ranking by getting to the final, although I suspect her current Italian opponent and future Russian opponent will do their best to help maintain Venus Williams' hold on that position. This is the veteran Schiavone's 4th career quarterfinal, her second in Paris since reaching that lofty height in her debut at the tournament in 2001. The young Dane had never been past the 4th round of a major despite being on the tour for 3 years until her major breakthrough in New York (over Svetlana Kuznetsova in one of the very best matches of 2009) last year, where she lost the final to Kim Clijsters. In these clashes between wily veteran and talented youngster it is often the older player who comes out the loser because they more viscerally understand the significance (and rarity) of the moment and I expect this case to be no different. Youth will be served, again. PREDICTION:Wozniacki in 2 sets.

Elena Dementieva RUS (5) vs. Nadia Petrova RUS (19) Venus Williams USA (2). Oh, Venus! After getting past her 3rd Round Roland Garros jinx easily she meekly went out to the hard-hitting, mentally fragile Petrova on a cold wet day in straight sets, losing to someone she had never lost to on any surface. Sigh. Soon to turn 30 years-old, and for once blessed with a draw that had all the deadliest players in the other half for once, Venus couldn't keep it together long enough to make another deep run at the clay major, despite having amassed a very good record on clay this year. Petrova has always done well in Paris, first breaking through here at age 17 into the semifinals in 2003. Her opponent, Elena Dementieva, has quietly snuck through the draw, losing only one set in a tiebreak to Aleksandra Wozniak of Canada, with almost no one discussing her chances despite being a finalist here in 2004 and having played the best women's match on tour last year. Matches between the Russians are very often hideous, tight affairs with one player losing worse than the other instead of one player winning decisively. That's what I expect to see in this match. Head-to-head there's not much between these two, they are tied 7-7 in career matches, 2-2 in clay court matches and 1-1 in grand slam matches. Petrova has won exactly 2 major quarterfinal matches before, here in Paris, while the 6-month-older Dementieva has won 8 major quarterfinals, although only one in Paris. PREDICTION: Dementieva in 3 sets.

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Australian Open 2010 Men’s Final Open Thread

Posted on 30 January 2010 by Craig



My preview is here; Mad Professah's, here. How about a 5-setter to go with the ladies' 3-setter?

I'll be staying up all night once again.

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Federer vs. Murray: Two And A Half Men

Posted on 30 January 2010 by Craig


Getty

Whenever Roger Federer and Andy Murray talk about each other, I can't help but think of that American sitcom starring Charlie Sheen and Jon Cryer who portray two brothers with a comic relationship characterized by competition and resentment.

I get the feeling that if they weren't sporting rivals not all that fond of one another, they'd be playing tricks on the other, trying to score the prettiest woman in the room. As it is, they try to psyche each other out in interviews, seeking the upper hand in the mind games before scoring victory on the court.

As Barry Flatman writes:

As Murray prepares for the biggest match of his tennis life in today’s Australian Open final, with the opportunity to become Britain’s first male Grand Slam champion since 1936, he may reflect on the pre-match posturing of opponent Roger Federer. Some would regard the Swiss’ comments that things are much easier for him because Murray is burdened with the expectations of a nation that has had to wait 150,000 years for a Grand Slam winner as relaxed, confident and comical.

Others would regard them as snide and insensitive to a nation yearning, desperately, for another champion after such a long drought.

But while the unforgiving press reminds the fang-flashing, primal-screaming Scot how important the first set will be, given Raja's record of winning 47 of 48 matches Down Under after taking the first set, Murray gets in a sting of his own:

Well, I mean, against Del Potro at the US Open last year, he was up a set and serving for the set, and Del Potro came back. You know, guys have come back against him in the past.

Obviously, it would be nice to start well, but I don't think it's the end of the match if the start doesn't go my way. Five‑set matches, so much can happen. A lot can change in just a few points, like my match the other night against Cilic. It's not the end of the world if the start doesn't go to plan.

And then there's this:

In the past few years he’s also lost a lot of close matches in five sets, including slam finals.

You hear that, Raja? Murray won't be withering like a wind-burnt pea pod just because you get a lead. So don't let up or you'll be trying to improve upon your relatively mediocre five-set record in another Grand Slam final.

But Raja isn't one to let others do his bidding. No way, no how. He's quite capable of tooting his own horn and dismissing his rivals with a serving of cattiness wrapped in Leonine charm with a side of delusion. The recipe of many a great champion.

As Doug Perry, a Federer aficionado, freely admits:

Federer has shown over the years an unfortunate propensity for flippant remarks about his rivals. He shelved the Muhammad Ali-like self-huzzahs when his quest for the all-time major record bogged down amid Rafael Nadal's endless crunching forehands, but now they're back.

That might be a bit of an understatement. Check this out:

He’s in his second grand-slam final now and I think the first one’s always a bit tougher than the second one. Now that he didn’t win the first one, I think it doesn’t help for the second one around. Plus he’s playing, you know, me, who’s won many grand-slams and has been able to win here three times, so I know what it takes and how to do it, which is definitely an advantage.

I don’t feel the pressure’s really on me having to do it again because I did it before. I think he really needs it more than I do, so the pressure’s bigger on him. We’ll see how he’s going to handle it. It’s not going to be easy for him, that’s for sure.

Without taking anything away from him, I think a few times he played me I wasn’t at my very, very best. I played him on a couple of occasions — Dubai comes to mind — when I had just come back from resting, after my mono [mononucleosis, the illness]. I know some don’t like to hear it and some still don’t believe me for some reason.

We had some close matches on many occasions where I thought I was in control and I ended up giving the match away by making errors of my own. That was definitely because of his play and the way he plays. That’s why I don’t really care too much about how the head-to-head stands [6-4 in Murray’s favour]. Every match is played differently.”

Ah, yes. The reintroduction of the mono excuse explanation, giving new meaning to Raja's Mr. Monogram nickname.

The reason some fans raise an eyebrow about your claims of mononucleosis, Mr. Mono-gram, is because, well, you never even missed an event because of it, unlike, say, Mario Ancic who can't seem to overcome his own bout with the energy sapping illness after more than two years.

But I digress.

Murray is having none of it.

But to me that stuff he said is irrelevant. I have always been pretty respectful about his game. He’s probably the greatest player that’s ever played. But if every time he loses to me he thinks it’s because he hasn’t played his best, well, every time I have lost against him I don’t think I have played my best either.


Don't they sound like brothers?

Both men claim to enjoy the match up. Both men claim to have the other's number. Both men insist the outcome of the match is on their racquet.

So who will be this year's Wizard of Oz?

In tonight's rematch of the 2008 US Open final, I've got a sneaking suspicion the world No. 1 is going to hand the world No. 5 his ass on a silver runner-up platter.

I, for one, would be perfectly happy with back-to-back-to-back five-set Slam finals, but I'm not holding my breath.

May the best brother man win.

::

Cross posted to The Huffington Post


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Australian Open 2010: Men’s Final Preview

Posted on 29 January 2010 by Mad Professah

Andy Murray GBR (5) v. Roger Federer SUI (1)

The men's final between 15-time champion Roger Federer of Switzerland and Andy Murray of Great Britain is a reprise of the 2008 US Open Final which Federer won relatively easily to claim his 13th major title. This final will be the 22nd major final of his career (a record) with 15 wins (and 6 losses, 5 of which have come to Rafael Nadal, who Murray dismissed in a quarterfinal encounter earlier in the tournament).

Surprisingly, even though Murray sports a 6-4 advantage against Federer overall, Federer has won their 1(!) meeting in a major 5-set match (which was the 2008 final won by Federer in straight sets) and by some quirk, all their matches have been played on hard courts, although both players possess all-court games.

Murray has looked the sharpest of all the top players all tournament long and has only dropped a single set. Federer has been up and down but he was scintillating in his straight-set elimination of Tsonga in the semifinal. There's no question in my mind if Federer plays his best tennis, he will win the match. It's not clear at 28 years old, facing younger opponents like his arch-rival Nadal, the 21-year-old 6'6" phenom J uan Martín del Potro (who took Federer out in a 5th set US Open final last year) and the 22-year olds Djokovic and Murray how much longer it will be true that when Federer plays his best no one can beat him. I suspect we will find out this year if Federer can even still play his best tennis.

After correctly predicting the result of every single men's match of the quarterfinal and semifinal rounds except for Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's surprising 5-set dispatch of 2008 Australian Open champion Novak Djokovic, I find this match surprisingly difficult to predict. However, using a similar technique I deployed in predicting the result of the women's final, I will endeavor to approximate a probability of the winner of tonight's match.

There are 6 possibilities: Federer in 3 sets, Federer in 4 sets, Federer in 5 sets, Murray in 3 sets, Murray in 4 sets, Murray in 5 sets. If the match is 3 sets long, I think there is a 76% chance the winner is Federer (24% chance it is Murray). If the match is 4 sets long, there is a 55% chance of Federer winning (a 45% chance for Murray). If the match is 5 sets long, there is a 40% chance of Federer winning (a 60% chance for Murray). Crunching the numbers this corresponds to a 57% probability that Federer will win the match. [One key assumption of this method is that 3 set, 4 set and 5 set matches are equally likely. This is probably not true, if someone has the data on what percentage of Grand Slam matches are 3-set, 4-set or 5-set contests, that would greatly help me improve this technique. In the meantime the assumption of equal likelihood does massively impact the results.]

MadProfessah's pick: Federer in straight sets (Murray in 4 or 5 sets).

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Australian Open 2010 Women’s Final Open Thread

Posted on 29 January 2010 by Craig



Highlights from Miami 2008, their last match.

My preview is here. Mad's preview, here. Put our predictions together, I'd say Serena Williams in straight sets or flip a coin if it goes the distance.

What say you?

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Rivalry Renewed

Posted on 29 January 2010 by Craig


Getty

The Australian Open organizers couldn't have written a better script. In the first Slam final of the new decade, 11-time Slam champion Serena Williams, world No. 1 and defending champion, will face off against 7-time champ Justine Henin, the 2004 champion playing in only her second event since abruptly and mysteriously retiring from the tour as world No. 1 -- the only player in history to do so -- 20 months ago.

Serena is gunning for Slam title No. 12, which will tie her with the legendary Billie Jean King on the all-time list. Henin is going for Slam No. 8 which will tie her with Monica Seles on the all-time list and move her past Venus Williams into second place among active players behind Serena.

There's mutual respect and a few vials of bad blood. Henin will never be able to live down her infamous hand shenanigans in the Roland Garros semifinal, which ultimately cost Serena the match and a chance to defend her first Roland Garros title. And after a string of successive defeats in the quarterfinals of Roland Garros, Wimbledon and the US Open in 2007, Serena virtually ran Justine off the tour with a 6-2, 6-0 beatdown in the quarterfinals of Key Biscayne in 2008.

A few weeks ago, when the Sydney draw came out, Serena and Henin were to face off in a potential second-round encounter. But Henin withdrew citing injury. She had just completed a grueling three-set final against her Belgian rival Kim Clijsters in the Brisbane final, so the tennis world would have to wait to see these mulitple Slam champions go at it.

Didn't have to wait too long. Some are calling it a dream final, others a cat fight. Based upon the player's current form, the encounter could be over in an hour. Serena's serve and return are the key. As much as Henin fights, her serve hasn't held up well throughout the fortnight. But her opponents haven't been able to fend off her aggressive return game to hold their own serves.

Serena went through four rounds without dropping serve and it wasn't until nerves overcame her at the outset of her quarterfinal encounter against Victoria Azarenka that she finally surrendered a service game. Several of them. But if she's comfortably holding serve -- she's served the most aces (53) and clocked the fastest serve (126.7 MPH) through 6 rounds -- and breaking serve at will, Henin won't win a set.

But Serena is trying to defend a Slam title for the first time since Wimbledon 2003. And while she asserted in a presser that she doesn't enter events to defend titles but to win them, I can't imagine some nervous pressure won't leaden her feet in the first few games of the match.

Henin, who recently admitted being afraid of playing Serena, could play with nothing to lose or as anxiously as she did against Elena Dementieva in the second round. Either way, her second serve is a wasteland and her penchant for double faulting at the crucial junctures of a match could be her undoing. However, if she's cracking forehand winners with that shorter backswing and earlier contact and wearing Serena down with dropshots, she could take Serena the distance.

Serena leads their career head-to-head 7-6. The American is 4-1 on hardcourts, the Belgian, 4-2 in Slams. They're tied at 2 wins apiece in event finals. Amazingly, this will be their first match in a Slam final and their first match in Melbourne.

Even though Serena has never lost a final Down Under, she's never won the title in an even year. Henin's only Australian Open title came in an even year.

ESPN will air the finals live at 3:30AM eastern standard time. Take your naps, set your alarms, prepare the popcorn and get ready for the fireworks.

::

Cross posted to Huffington Post

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Australian Open 2010 Day 7 Open Thread

Posted on 23 January 2010 by Craig

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - JANUARY 23:  Hisense Arena and Rod Laver Arena are seen during day six of the 2010 Australian Open at Melbourne Park on January 23, 2010 in Melbourne, Australia.
Getty

Week two begins. For my money, the Round of 16 at a Slam is the toughest match to win if you haven't been this way before. For the eventual champion, it's the middle match. You win, you become one of the Final Eight and will always be referred to as a Grand Slam quarterfinalist. If you don't, you have to "settle" for the honorable distinction of making the second week of a Slam.

Interestingly, in the bottom half of both draws only one player, Alona Bondarenko, makes her debut in week two and only two players, John Isner and Maria Kirilenko, have never been past the last 16. Both are making their second appearance in this round. Isner made his first appearance at last year's US Open with his upset of a broken-spirited Andy Roddick in a third-set breaker. Kirilenko made her major debut in week two right here two years ago, upsetting then-ranked Top 10-er Anna Chakvetadze in three. Do they have another upset in them? Can Bondarenko continue her fine form and win her first fourth round match on her first try against the gritty Chinese player?

For me, the most intriguing matches of the day are the battle of the Belgians, the battle of the Larry Stefanki charges, and the battle of the Giants.

I get a sense that Yanina Wickmayer doesn't particularly care for Justine Henin and has the hard flat shots that can keep Henin pinned behind the baseline looping slices into the short court. Both are exhausted, so the one who wants it the most will outlast the other. That would be Henin. Two tight sets. Then again, Wickmayer relishes Kim Clijsters and doesn't particularly care for Henin, so....

This is the first encounter between Roddick and Fernando González since the American stole the Chilean's coach. Roddick leads their head-to-head 8-3, but the Chilean fans in Melbourne are an excited bunch and lifted González over the finish line in his third-round war. We saw how tentatively Roddick played against an opponent he owned in his last match, so I expect much of the same. If Gonzo isn't missing, it's going to be a rough night for Koala Andy. Then again, no one thrives more in the night-match atmosphere than the sailor-mouthed American. It could be a straight-set beatdown, or a five-set epic. I ain't calling it.

The Giant Croat and the Giant Argentinean have only played twice, both times in Slams, including a meeting in the same round here last year and in the quarterfinals of the US Open last year. Both times, Juan Martín del Potro beat Marin Cilic in four sets. I think the Tower of Tandil will make it 3-for-3, tennis elbow notwithstanding.

For the rest, I'm going with Andy Murray in four, Rafael Nadal in four, Zheng in straights or Bondarenko in three (wimpy, I know), Nadia Petrova in two or Svetlana Kuznetsova in three (and again - but we're talking Russian headcases here!), and Dinara Safina in a rout.

Who you got?

Order Of Play For Sunday, 24 January 2010

Rod Laver Arena 11:00 Start Time

1. Men's Singles - 4th Round
Andy Murray (GBR)[5] v. John Isner (USA)[33]
2. Men's Singles - 4th Round
Ivo Karlovic (CRO) v. Rafael Nadal (ESP)[2]

Rod Laver Arena 19:00 Start Time

1. Women's Singles - 4th Round
Justine Henin (BEL) v. Yanina Wickmayer (BEL)
2. Men's Singles - 4th Round
Andy Roddick (USA)[7] v. Fernando Gonzalez (CHI)[11]

Hisense Arena 11:00 Start Time

1. Women's Singles - 4th Round
Alona Bondarenko (UKR)[31] v. Jie Zheng (CHN)
Not Before:12:30
2. Women's Singles - 4th Round
Nadia Petrova (RUS)[19] v. Svetlana Kuznetsova (RUS)[3]
3. Men's Singles - 4th Round
Marin Cilic (CRO)[14] v. Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG)[4]
Not Before:15:00
4. Women's Singles - 4th Round
Maria Kirilenko (RUS) v. Dinara Safina (RUS)[2]
This match may be moved to Rod Laver Arena.

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