How To Make Big Money with Sports Betting-Fresno State vs Boise State
Have you ever wondered how the sports betting “smart money” was the smart money? Do you wonder what the football betting smart money does differently than the amateurs? To get an idea how a professional sports handicapper analyzes a game
let’s take a look at the analysis I have for my clients for Fresno St. vs. Boise St. game: Fresno St. at Boise St. -23 The line on this game is “only” 23 because of Fresno St. past reputation as half-decent team. Fresno St. This team is terrible
going 1-6 SU so far this season. More importantly
Boise St. is playing at home
and Boise St. is ranked 14th in the nation for a good reason. They are unstoppable on offense
especially playing at home. Here is a scary stat for you to around … think Boise St. has averaged 40 points per game this season
and Fresno St.’s defense is giving up an average total of 32 points per game. In their last two games
Fresno St. has given an average of 56 points per game. Meanwhile
Boise St. scored just under 36 points once all season. Boise St. has scored over 40 points in six games. Boise St. has averaged 46 points per game in their last three home games and has won an average of dissemination by a full 7 points in their last three home games
although they were favored by an average of 20 points per game. Meanwhile
Fresno St. averaged about 13 points per game in their last three road games and scored only 6
12 and 20 points. What adds to a Boise St. game where you can expect to score at least in the mid-40′s
and Fresno St. to score 20 points if they have a great game. In other words
if only their average game Boise St. and Fresno St. plays a great game
the final score falls near the line of 23. Here’s another way to look at. Sometimes watching games as a grid of possible outcomes
it becomes easier to see the high percentage play. Here is a table of possible results showing scores probably depends on whether or not every team has a “good” or “bad” game:
Boise St. Fresno St. Potential Final Score Average game average game 46-14 bad game bad game 36-10 ; Good game Good game 55-26 Good Game Bad Game 36-26 Good game bad game 55-10 As you can see
there is only one scenario in which Fresno St. has a chance to cover. That’s when a good game
and Boise St. has a bad game. All other scenarios point to Boise St. on 23 points. Is
if a good game is Boise St.
Fresno St. has no chance to cover. Similarly
if Fresno St. is a bad game
they have no chance to cover. Of course
the models we use to “possible” scores to determine are the property of statistical models that use weighting factors. It’s the same type of analysis used by financial traders to calculate probabilities. Keep in mind
we can only play probabilities
and even when the odds in your favor
you can still lose. That is why it is important to manage risks by staying disciplined with your commitment. Bottom line
Boise St. tonight and probably run up the score going away
52-17. win The actual final score was Boise St. 45
Fresno St. 21. Boise St. showing the distribution by 1 point. However
what you achieve by just seeing the score is only Fresno St. was able to close to return an interception for a touchdown. In other words
analyzing the game was just right. Fresno St. had a “good” game and was still 23 points below the spread. By repeating this type of analysis over and over
anyone serious about sports betting is big money!
