Posted on 11 March 2010 by Randy Booth
Posted on 11 March 2010 by Jeff Sullivan
By David Coleman, Evan Hochschild, and Stephen Higdon of The Crawfish Boxes
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Introduction
There seem to be two schools of thought on the 2010 Houston Astros.The first will tell you that this is a team five years past it's prime, with no eye on the future and not enough talent to compete in the short-term. All-Stars Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt are nearing the end of their careers and the team has failed to supplement them with other players who can win games. Tim Purpura's reign of incompetence turned into Ed Wade's reign of irrelevance, except when it comes to the Brandon Lyon signing. Yes, about the only thing that the sabermetric community cannot figure out is who's the bigger joke: Wade, or the Astros themselves.
Compounding these personnel issues is an owner, Drayton McLane, Jr., who has proven to be a micro manager extraordinaire. McLane is someone who once ran one of the most successful franchises in MLB but now has forgotten everything that made his team the envy of professional baseball.
As far as the minor leagues are concerned...the Astros shouldn't even have minor league teams, say proponents of this school of thought. Sure, our 2008 and 2009 draft classes have been "Ok", but as the tried and true minor league critique goes, most of the players at the top of our minor league pecking order are low ceiling, high floor prospects. Too many relievers, too many players confined to corner outfield/first base, too many missed opportunities.
Bottom line for Group One thinkers: the Astros are irrelevant, will continue to be irrelevant and will by all estimations get worse (if possible). What's more - they have nobody to blame for their own shortsighted, misguided decisions. Insert snark here, mock Ed Wade a little more there, and that's the 2010 Houston Astros.
The second school of thought (one that the The Crawfish Boxes and other more reasonable mediums of baseball knowledge ascribe to) tends to agree in large part with what Group One thinkers do. Yes, our farm system is at the bottom of barrel. Certainly, Ed Wade will never be confused with a Bill James-ian GM who places a great deal of emphasis on sabermetrics, objective analysis and spreadsheets. We're all in agreement that Drayton McLane should probably back off just a tad with his puppeteering, and maybe even give Ed Wade a chance to make his own decisions. We too feel bad for Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman, two Hall of Fame-caliber players, who will most likely never see the postseason again as long as "Houston" is emblazoned across their jerseys.
However, unlike the first group, we see the situation objectively. Instead of holding unfair opinions of Wade based on hearsay, misanalysed personnel decisions and an overemphasis on group thought, we believe that while Wade may not be the best GM in baseball, he has made several decisions that will impact the Astros positively as we head into 2010 and beyond. Hiring Bobby Heck as scouting director after the 2007 season was a fantastic move, and it led to immediate results on the player development front as the Astros had two above average drafts in 2008 and 2009.
On the Major League level, players like Michael Bourn, Jeff Fulchino, Alberto Arias, and Chia-Jen Lo were brought into the fold by the front office. This past offseason saw Ed Wade acquire four players via free agency and trades (Matt Lindstrom, Lyon, Brett Myers and Pedro Feliz) that are slated to take on large roles with this team in 2010, despite having to cut nearly $15 million off the payroll. McLane listens to and respects the opinions of Wade like no GM he's had before and the Astros' re-emphasis on scouting for and developing talent in the Dominican Republic is but another example of how this team is headed in a positive direction.
While the Astros are one of the older teams in baseball, younger players like Bud Norris, Felipe Paulino, Sammy Gervacio, Alberto Arias, Jason Castro, Lo and Matt Nevarez could all see fairly significant playing time with the team in 2010 and certainly in 2011. Another good draft in June by Wade, Heck and Co., should see the Astros' minor league ranking climb up the chart towards respectability.
There are always two sides to any story, and the 2010 Astros are no different. After an offseason of reading from the the lesson plans of the first school of thought, we in the second group had some catching up to do.
Position Players
C J.R. Towles
1B Lance Berkman
2B Kazuo Matsui
3B Pedro Feliz
SS Tommy Manzella
LF Carlos Lee
CF, Michael Bourn
RF Hunter Pence
Bench: C Humberto Quintero, OF Jason Michaels, IF Jeff Keppinger, IF Geoff Blum, OF Cory Sullivan/Jason Bourgeois
There's little doubt that the Astros' offensive attack will be one of the least potent in the NL in 2010. Our best offensive player, Lance Berkman, is already having his health called into question, which would hurt any team. For the top-heavy Astros, this could spell disaster if Berkman is forced to miss significant action this season. Should this injury scare be just that, and Lance is able to play 145+ games, he is still one of the better first basemen in the game and should be looked at as a viable run producer and base clogger.
Corner outfielders Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence are both above average players, but not quite "All Star" level talents. Lee is a terrible defender in left field, though the short porch at Minute Maid Park mitigates this effect slightly. At the dish, Carlos is a "pencil him in for .300/20/90 RBI/75 R" sorta guy. Not one to walk an extreme amount, he does have great contact skills and rarely strikes out. A slowdown in his bat speed could spell trouble for the Astros, however.
As for Pence, he is entering into what should be the prime of his career. In the field, Hunter has one of the best throwing arms in all of baseball, and is rated overall as a very good defensive outfielder. Patience truly is a virtue, and 2009 saw Pence take this credo to heart as his offensive approach changed for the better and led to a solid, if not unspectacular season. Fresh off an offseason that saw him collect a substantial pay raise, Pence will be looking to build on his 2009 campaign and capitalize on his large reserve of talent.
In center, the oft-maligned Michael Bourn turned in one of the more surprising 2009 seasons of any Major Leaguer. From his defense to his baserunning to his ability to attack the fastball, Bourn rewarded GM Ed Wade's faith in him by seeing to it that 2008 was nothing more than a bump in the road. 2010 will be an important season for Bourn, as he attempts to solidify himself as one of the game's top center fielders.
The left side of the Astros' infield has a couple of question marks. Pedro Feliz is a known entity, and that's the scary part. We know he'll be above average defensively, but we also know he hasn't hit 20 home runs since 2007. At 35, we know his best days are behind him. His $4.5 million contract for 2010 means he will get his share of playing time, which means the Astros will get a .700 OPS and plus defense at third, unless you're the optimistic sort about Feliz' offense bouncing back.
Tommy Manzella is the other question mark. A 27 year old "prospect", Manzella looks to shore up the shortstop position after the loss of Miguel Tejada. The jury is out on his defensive ability, which, coupled with his less than mediocre offensive numbers in the minor leagues, means Jeff Keppinger may see more time here than we would like. Kepp's bat is fine, but he is no shortstop defensively. Perhaps prospect Wladimir Sutil or a castoff from another club gets some playing time here when we look back on 2010.
It used to be that second base was the easiest preview of all for the Astros. Now, two years after the retirement of Craig Biggio, the team finds itself plugging in whoever is healthy enough to play. Health is always a factor when discussing Kaz Matsui, who is in the last year of a three year/$15 million contract. If healthy, he is good for a fairly high batting average, can steal a base and will generally play good defense. The fact that he has missed considerable playing time in both 2008 and 2009 doesn't alleviate the injury concerns about Matsui. It's the prospect of having to wait and see with Matsui that should leave most with the opinion that the Astros are going to have to become familiar with someone other than Kaz playing second base.
At catcher, the only sure thing to be on the Major League roster on Opening Day is Humberto Quintero, who will be the second string catcher, no matter if JR Towles or Jason Castro is the starter. Quintero is a run-of-the-mill reserve catcher who displays no remarkable qualities. He is what he is.
Towles has shown promise before, but has yet to perform consistently on the Major League level. Now is a good time for J.R. to showcase his wares, however, as Jason Castro appears nearly ready to leave the minor leagues and become the Astros' full-time catcher. To his credit, Towles has shown the propensity to walk a fair amount when compared to his strikeout rate. His Triple-A numbers indicate that he can be a passable Major League catcher; the question is whether or not he will ever live up to that sort of billing.
There is no question that Jason Castro is the Astros' catcher of the future. At 22, he would be one of the youngest catchers to ever log significant time behind the dish for a big league team, and it looks as though he will begin the 2010 season in Round Rock. That being said, the Astros would be pleasantly surprised if he wins the job from Towles this spring and begins his Major League career in April. Spending more time in the minors wouldn't be a bad thing though, and would allow the Astros to see if Towles can offer them (or another club) anything of value.
Riding the pine, Geoff Blum is a jack-of-all-trades and a master of none. Both he and Jason Michaels offer veteran leadership and other intangibles...or so we are led to believe. Jeff Keppinger is a perfect reserve player - able to play multiple positions defensively and is a positive contributor offensively. He should see a good deal of playing time at third base, second base and perhaps short. The fifth outfielder's spot looks to be a fairly wide open battle between minor league invitees Cory Sullivan and Jason Bourgeois. Bourgeois, a former Milwaukee Brewer, is the more interesting of the pair, but neither is a potential starter in waiting.
Rotation
1) RHP Roy Oswalt
2) LHP Wandy Rodriguez
3) RHP Brett Myers
4) RHP Bud Norris
5) RHP Felipe Paulino or RHP Brian Moehler
We are cautiously optimistic about the Astros' rotation. Everyone knows how good Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez can be. Those two can be penciled in as a strong one-two punch quite comfortably. There are a couple of question marks that follow, though.
The Astros are looking for large steps forward from Bud Norris and Felipe Paulino, who were both better than their ERA indicates in 2009 from an advanced metric perspective (xFIP, SIERA, etc.). Norris’ stumbling block could either be his walk rate or his health (a large IP increase in 2009). The odds-on favorite has got to be his health - an issue which has caused us much consternation as we await actual baseball.
Paulino is more enigmatic. Nearly all of his skill-related peripherals suggest that he’ll perform admirably as a starter, but lady luck and the Astros defense will need to shine favorably for his skill to shine through. What we'll be more concerned about is how lady luck affects him. Fewer pitchers can boast the differentials between ERA (6.27) and skill-related metrics like xFIP (4.10) and SIERA (3.87). The odds are ripe for Paulino to follow somewhere between these two bounds, but it's not exactly clear exactly which bound he'll be closest to. It is hoped, in TCB land, that a more consistent approach with Paulino from new manager Brad Mills and pitching coach Brad Arnsberg will result in more consistent results. Paulino definitely suffered from Cecil Cooper's woeful mismanagement of Paulino (bouncing him in and out of the rotation all summer long).
The last acquisition of the offseason, Brett Myers, should see a bounceback in 2010 with his health issues under control. Concerns linger about his hip surgery and the possible mechanical changes Myers employed to compensate down the stretch in 2009, so he is by no means a sure thing. However, the Astros will likely only need him in a fourth or fifth starter capacity, which limits the amount of leverage on Myers’ performance.
We feel this will be one the better rotations the Astros have fielded in several seasons, but that isn’t saying much. With three question marks following the Wizard and his Wand(y), there is cause for both concern and optimism. If only two of the three question marks solidify themselves, then the back up plan, Brian Moehler, can be called upon to help out; we’re just hoping it doesn’t come to that - fervently.
Bullpen
Top Seven Guys: RHP Matt Lindstrom, RHP Brandon Lyon, RHP Alberto Arias, RHP Jeff Fulchino, RHP Chris Sampson, LHP Tim Byrdak, LHP Wesley Wright
The Astros' bullpen in 2010 isn’t going to blow anyone way with the names that are in it (sorry fantasy baseball players). The analogy that I will put forth is it’s like a casserole. None of the ingredients are top notch, but the end result will be quite serviceable. All of the relievers are present because they all have a skill set that is strong, but overall they are roughly average (kind of like canned/frozen vegetables).
The closer is likely to be Matt Lindstrom (stuff), but will likely fluctuate between he and Brandon Lyon (control). Lindstrom is tantalizing because of his raw stuff, but he lacks the command of his raw talent to say definitely that he will be the closer. Other closer-by-committee candidates are Chris Sampson (ground balls), Alberto Arias (ground balls + Ks), and Jeff Fulchino (strong like bull).
Alberto Arias was TCB's dark-horse candidate for the starting rotation last year, and this year he is our dark-horse candidate for closer of the future. Arias mixes extreme ground ball rates with a propensity to also strike batters out—a sterling quality in a reliever. Although a TCB favorite, the likely order of closer preference for the Astros goes: Lindstrom, Lyon, Arias.
There is a thin margin of error that bullpen and it is health. All of the backend of the bullpen candidates are health risks in some form or fashion, save maybe Arias. If all goes well health-wise, the Astros' bullpen will be like a delicious chicken pot pie: nothing special, but still satisfying. If health issues crop up, then the Astros' bullpen gumbo will taste like the one that has been sitting in the back of the fridge for about three weeks: you can probably eat and everything will be OK, but you’re going not going to be happy about it.
In The System
What the top of the Astros system lacks in impact, it makes up for in volume. All the players that are closest to seeing the big leagues this season are relievers. Guys like Chia-jen Lo, Matt Nevarez and Sammy Gervacio are all on the cusp of making a difference in the big league bullpen. Other guys like Wilton Lopez, Evan Englebrook and Henry Villar are longer shots, but are on the 40-man roster and could make an impact this season too. The first three all have a chance to close games; their stuff is that electric. The big question is how much can the Astros use these guys?
With Alberto Arias, Jeff Fulchino and Chris Sampson combining with Matt Lindstrom and Brandon Lyon in the back of the bullpen, where is there room for more arms? The loser of the Brian Moehler/Felipe Paulino battle will get the sixth spot here, most likely, leaving these MLB-ready guys in Triple-A. As volatile as relievers can be, this is a good thing.
It also means, however, that the Astros are lacking in flashy additions. Outside of a potential quick moving guy like outfielder T.J. Steele (who the Astros brass likes enough to compare him with former Houston great Cesar Cedeno), the only real position player that could emerge from the minors is catcher Jason Castro. The No. 10 overall pick in the 2008 draft out of Stanford, Castro was seen as a bit of a reach when he was drafted. Flash forward two years and he's listed among the Top 50 prospects in the game by many sources. He combines excellent defense, a big-time throwing arm and good discipline at the plate to make a potentially solid starter for the next 10 years. The question will be whether his bat is ready. Castro played more innings last season behind the plate than he had ever before. Fatigue seems to have set in late in the season, as his average plunged in the Arizona Fall League. There haven't been many catchers who have started full-time behind the plate at Age 22 or before, so leaving Castro in the minors for another season to develop wouldn't be the worst thing. If J.R. Towles or Humberto Quintero are struggling around June or July, though, expect to see Castro in the majors.
Two under-the-radar guys who could make an impact this season are outfielders Drew Locke and Collin DeLome. The first was a Triple-A Rule V selection last season out of the Dodger organization and the second was a fifth round draft pick out of Lamar University in 2007. They both have similar struggles with strikeouts. Locke is older at 27 but has a better batting eye than DeLome, who is more athletic but makes less contact. Each have good power potential and could surprise with a good three week run in the Majors in the event of an injury to Carlos Lee or Hunter Pence.
If there is an injury on the infield, the Astros were hoping Jose Vallejo may fill the need. However, the 23-year old former Rangers prospect who was acquired in the Ivan Rodriguez deal last August, sliced tendons in his hand while barbequeing at his home in the Dominican Republic. Vallejo had surgery a few weeks ago in Houston and will most likely miss the 2010 season. The most likely replacement is shortstop Wladimir Sutil. Known more for his glove than his bat, the 25-year old Venezuelan is very versatile, having played both third and second base in the minors. His bad is unspectacular but could be used in a bench role in the majors. Sutil does tend to take more walks than strikeouts and would fit in nicely behind someone like Kazuo Matsui.
If we were writing this section in 2011 instead of this spring, the first three guys we'll probably be talking about are Jordan Lyles, Jiovanni Mier and either Ross Seaton or Brad Dydalewicz. All three are high school draftees who showed a ton of promise in their first seasons in the minors. As good as they are, however, they are not going to do anything with Houston in 2010.
Miscellaneous
You can't overstate enough what the change in managers from Cecil Cooper to Brad Mills could do for Houston. Players were wearing shirts around the clubhouse with the word, "Really?" printed across the chest. The players just never knew what Cooper was going to do next, whether it be yanking around playing time, leaning too hard on the bullpen, changing game strategy all the time and calling out guys to the press rather than in the clubhouse. Add on top of that a fiery personality and Cooper simply lost this team.
Whether it was bad clubhouse chemistry brought on by the manager or injuries robbing Roy Oswalt and Carlos Lee of time, the Astros' star players underperformed in 2009. It's hard for a team to overcome their ace and their three and four hitters struggling all at once. While Lee didn't miss any time, his slugging percentage did drop from 2008.
The other thing that Mills may change is philosophy. Already this spring, Mills is talking about his team being more selective at the plate. For a club with only two everyday players drawing more than the league average in walks (Berkman, 97 and Bourn, 63), it's a welcome addition. There's not much information on what Mills will be like in the clubhouse, but he's already shown a tendency to work guys hard, build up that club chemistry and worry about getting on base. All three of those things could help the Astros win more games in 2010.
The other big change for the Astros is bringing in pitching coach Brad Arnsberg. The 47-year old has a bit of a bad reputation nationally, which we looked into here. There may be better methods to evaluating potential injuries, but it looks like Arnsberg was a victim of his manager in Toronto. It does appear that Arnsberg does a great job of creating a close-knit bond with his pitchers and has a knack for reclamation projects. If he can do for Felipe Paulino what he did for Ricky Romero, the Astros will really be interesting.
Losing Miguel Tejada will be difficult as well. Every story around the team talked about how infectious his energy was on the field. Granted, that didn't always translate to power production or solid defense, but Tejada did make it fun to play the game. Reporters around the team talk about Hunter Pence in the same way. Hopefully, he and newly arrived guys like J.R. Towles and Tommy Manzella can bring that youthful exuberance to the team to replace what the Astros lost in Tejada.
Conclusion
The staff at TCB collective thought, "Really? There are 10 other teams with higher postseason odds than the Astros? Huh..." There are definitely reasons to be optimistic about 2010, but it would take a lot of things going right for Houston to contend. In fact, the probability of all that happening is right around 75-to-1 odds anyway, so it seems like Vegas got it right again.
Posted on 11 March 2010 by Jim McLennan
Veteran Todd Helton has signed a two-year extension, according to the Denver Post. That will take Helton through the 2013 season, and given the first baseman will be 40 by that point, likely to retirement.
The deal will cost the Rockies very little money. Helton was slated to make $19.1 million in 2011, but under the terms of the new deal, he'll get a $6m salary plus a $4.7m signing bonus, then earn $4.9m in 2012 and $5m over the final year. He's also deferring $13.1m of the amount owed over ten years, which will give the Rockies flexibility during a window when they look set to compete in the NL West for some time.
This will be Helton's fourteenth season in Colorado. He's been an All-Star five times and has won three Gold Gloves at first in that time. His career average of .328 ranks third among active players, as does Helton's OPS of .994. Obviously, those numbers are Coors-inflated, but there is a credible argument to be made for his Cooperstown credentials.
Visit Purple Row for Rockies' fan reaction to the deal.
Posted on 11 March 2010 by Randy Booth
According to Jorge Ebro of the El Nuevo Herald, the Rays have signed Cuban outfielder/first baseman Leslie Anderson to a four year, $3.75 million deal.
Anderson was one of the more coveted Cuban players that were available on the market, along with first baseman Jose Julio Ruiz.
Here's a quick breakdown of Anderson:
Anderson has gap power. He is not your typical slugger like Ryan Howard or Albert Pujols. Anderson could hit between 15-20 home runs at the Major League level if given the chance. He is a gold glove type first baseman, but I believe his value is in CF a position that requires less power than first base and in his overall versatility.
For more on Anderson and the Rays, visit SB Nation's DRaysBay.com.
Posted on 11 March 2010 by Kyle Lobner
Follow along with this stream as we check out what's going on in every camp for every team in baseball. Updates will be provided on a division-by-division basis.
Posted on 10 March 2010 by Jeff Sullivan
By Jim McLennan of AZ Snake Pit
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Introduction
The Diamondbacks look to recover from a very disappointing 2009, which saw them finish last in the division. They fired their manager, lost ace Brandon Webb for almost the entire season, and struggled to reach 70 wins just two years after reaching the NLCS. This year has to be better - if only on the basis it can't really go very much worse. But what are the chances of a major bounceback?
Position Players
22-year old Justin Upton, an All-Star last year, and freshly-inked to a long-term deal, will be expected to start living up to that contract in right-field. He and Mark Reynolds, the third-baseman who exploded to 44 homers in 2009, will be expected to shoulder the bulk of the offensive production, along with Adam LaRoche, whose arrival as a free-agent should help plug the offensive black-hole which was first-base for the Diamondbacks last season. Reynolds set an all-time major-league record for strikeouts last season, but as long as he drives in over a hundred runs again, Arizona supporters will tolerate the K's.
LaRoche joins another ex-Brave, 2B Kelly Johnson, on the left-side of the infield; Johnson's 2009 was so bad, he was non-tendered by the Braves, so he has a lot to prove. Bounceback seasons, though for differing reasons, will also be sought from Chris Young in center and Conor Jackson in left [Jackson may also see some time at 1B]. Conor caught valley fever in spring training, a fungal lung disease (!) that turned into pneumonia (!!) and left him with the energy level of a used Kleenex - he should be fine for Opening Day, after tearing up the Dominican League in winter ball. Young also suffered from a chronic and debilitating disease; in his case it was a severe case of pop-upitis that infected his year; he did look somewhat better over the final month, after a spell in Triple-A.
Behind the plate, Miguel Montero will split time with Chris Snyder, Montero having become the #1 catcher after Snyder was sidelined by back issues for much of 2009. Stephen Drew will be the regular shortstop, and his performance level will likely be good enough to avoid much criticism, while falling short of garnering much praise. Off the bench, Gerardo Parra will spell all three outfielders, while defensive wizard and fan favorite Augie Ojeda and the heavily-tattooed Ryan Roberts backup on the infield. There's still one roster spot left at the time of writing, thanks to Eric Byrnes being dumped: we'll be paying him $11m to play for the Mariners this season, but don't mention him to any Diamondbacks' fans if you value your internal organs.
Rotation
It's probably a bit of an exaggeration to say the Arizona season stands or falls on the performance of Brandon Webb - but only a bit. His absence was a large cause of last year's disappointments: from 2006-08, no pitcher won more games in the majors, yet in 38 starts, his 2009 replacements went 7-20 with a 6.11 ERA. He's still coming back from shoulder clean-up surgery last August, and his readiness for Opening Day is uncertain: I'd say we may not see a fully-effective Webb for the first month or even two. If/when he's recovered, that radically alters the make-up of the rotation.
Alongside Webb, we have Dan Haren, who was the best pitcher in the NL for the first half of last year (and got jobbed out of the All-Star start). He fell off sharply after the break, continuing a trend that has been the case for most of his career. New arrival Edwin Jackson was also better earlier on, and Arizona will be looking for him to prove 2009's breakout season was not a fluke. While former Yankees prospect Ian Kennedy is largely untested in the majors, he is almost guaranteed the #4 spot for the D-backs. The fifth - and if Webb's not ready, sixth - spot - is less certain. Billy Buckner and Bryan Augenstein, two who saw some starts last season, may get another shot, and Rodrigo Lopez is another possible candidate.
Bullpen
This was a problem for the Diamondbacks last season - not so much for the runs allowed, as when they were given up, with the eighth inning a particular problem. Closer Chad Qualls missed the last month with a knee injury, but should be fine for Opening Day, and will take over the ninth inning again. There are a number of candidates as set-up men: the team acquired veterans Bob Howry and Aaron Heilman, though both struggled in high-leverage innings in 2009. Internally, Juan Gutierrez is the top candidate, having replaced Qualls in September and been solid. Leftie Clay Zavada, beloved by fans for his blue-collar approach and Rollie Fingers 'stache, may also see action there.
Towards the back of the relief corps, things are still shaking down. Blaine Boyer seems likely to retain his spot, while would leave Rule 5 pick Zack Kroenke, Esmerling Vasquez and Leo Rosales to battle it out for the final spot. Kroenke must be kept on the 25-man roster or the team risks losing him, and Rosales is out of options, so Vasquez appears to be low man on the totem-pole. Whether it's Kroenke or Rosales will likely be determined by spring training performance: last year, Rule 5 pick James Skelton was found wanting, but Arizona worked out a trade to retain him in the minors.
In The System
There's not much chance of help from the farm system immediately. Arizona did have what was regarded as a good draft in 2009, which helped replenish a system largely strip-mined of options in various trades, such as the one for Dan Haren. However, no-one picked there is remotely near ready to help the club: overall top prospect, pitcher Jarrod Parker, will miss much or all of the season after Tommy John surgery. The good news is, the Diamondbacks remain one of the youngest teams in the majors, and should not need a great deal of help from the minor leagues in the next year or two. Infielders Brandon Allen, Rusty Ryal and Tony Abreu, and outfielder Cole Gillespie could contribute, and are currently battling for the 25th spot - they may be better served with regular playing time in Triple-A.
Miscellaneous
It'll be manager AJ Hinch's first full season, having taken over 29 games into last season. It was undoubtedly a learning experience for him, so it'll be interesting to see how he handles things, being in charge from Opening Day. The team certainly needs to improve on its fundamentals - Arizona were ahead only of Washington in fielding percentage, with some embarrassingly inept play at times. That will need to be corrected if the team is to compete in 2010. As GM Josh Byrnes said, "We have enough talent to give us a chance, but I don't think that we have so much talent that we can be sloppy and win."
Conclusion
The bookies currently rate us at 75/1 to win the World Series. If Webb is healthy, then that is a real steal, to the point where a five-hour drive to Vegas seems like a worthwhile investment. At this point, however, I will be leaving my life-savings under the mattrees; if they are without Webb, it is difficult to see how they can stand out in what should be a tight NL West. It seems that the team deserves some luck from the baseball gods, and if the undeniable collection of young talent in Arizona also finally gels, the 15-game or more turnaround needed to get us in the hunt is certainly not an impossibility.
Posted on 10 March 2010 by Jeff Sullivan
Follow along with this stream as we check out what's going on in every camp for every team in baseball. Updates will be provided on a division-by-division basis.
Posted on 10 March 2010 by Chris Mottram
Nomar Garciaparra is once again a member of the Red Sox ... but just for one day. The former Boston shortstop will announce his retirement from baseball as a member of the Red Sox Wednesday morning.
Garciaparra was a five-time All-Star in Boston, won Rookie of the Year in '97, and finished second in MVP voting in '98 to Juan Gonzalez (who we all know did things the all natural way back then). His career was up-and-down and injury-plagued after leaving the Red Sox, but to Boston fans he'll certainly go down as THE GREATEST SHORTSTOP EVAH AND NOBODY DENIES THIS. He nevah won a ring with Bahston but Nomah was always there fah us in spirit!
For more on this story, and all thing SAWX, head over the SB Nation's Over The Monster (which is the GREATEST BASEBAWL BLAHG EVAH!)
*We apologize for the gratuitous mocking of Boston fans. Haters gon hate.
Posted on 09 March 2010 by Jeff Sullivan
By Joel Luckhaupt of Red Reporter
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Introduction
For the third straight year, the Reds are a trendy "sleeper" pick in the National League. With an influx of young talent over the last three seasons, many figure that soon or later the Reds are going to put it together. Will this season be the year? There are still a lot of question marks.
Position Players
1. Drew Stubbs CF
2. Orlando Cabrera SS
3. Joey Votto 1B
4. Brandon Phillips 2B
5. Scott Rolen 3B
6. Jay Bruce RF
7. Jonny Gomes/Chris Dickerson LF
8. Ramon Hernandez/Ryan Hanigan C
For people that may not have paid close attention to the Reds last year, they may be surprised to see that this traditionally offensive-oriented team is actually weak at the plate. Joey Votto is the heart of the offense, finishing 4th in the Majors in wOBA in 2009. He did miss a month of time on the field with an ear infection followed by anxiety issues that put him on the disabled list. Given his age -- he's just 26 -- you would expect Votto to continue to develop, but a .373 batting average on balls he hit in play portends a drop-off at the plate. Expect him to continue to be the Reds' best hitter, even if he doesn't quite match last year's production.
The key to the Reds' lineup might be Jay Bruce. If the 23-year old can have a breakout season after a disappointing 2009 campaign, the Reds offense could be enough to contend. However, if Bruce continues to struggle in the fashion that we saw last season, it is unlikely that the Reds will be able to put enough runs on the board. His upside is the primary reason for optimism in 2010.
The rest of the offense is fairly predictable. The only real wild card is Drew Stubbs, who showed some unexpected power in a month-and-a-half stint in the big leagues last season. It is assumed that he can outdo the abysmal performance of Willy Taveras from last season, but the question is by how much? For the Reds to have any real shot at the division, it will likely require every one of the regulars to meet their projections, if not outperform them. They don't have enough offensive talent to be able to overcome down years by more than one or two players.
Defensively, the Reds are a strong team. Jonny Gomes is the only poor defender among the regulars. Off-season acquisition Orlando Cabrera isn't as good defensively as he once was, but hopefully should be around average. If not, don't be surprised if defensive specialist Paul Janish is used as a late inning defensive replacement. Scott Rolen and Brandon Phillips are both gold glove caliber defenders, and Joey Votto is solid at first base. In the outfield, Stubbs was named the best defensive outfielder in the minors last season by Baseball America, and Bruce has a good arm and good range in right field. Chris Dickerson is a natural center fielder who will also see some time in left field, where he is pretty good, though not outstanding. Behind the plate, Ryan Hanigan threw out 43% of attempted base stealers in 2009, one of the best rates in the NL. Ramon Hernandez wasn't too shabby either, nailing 36% of base runners.
Overall, the defense may be the Reds' best attribute going into 2010. They may not score a lot of runs, but hopefully they'll be able to keep runs off the board in return.
Rotation
1. Aaron Harang
2. Johnny Cueto
3. Bronson Arroyo
4. Homer Bailey
5. Undecided
The Reds' rotation came into the 2009 season with high expectations. Edinson Volquez had just come off an excellent year. Johnny Cueto looked primed to blossom into a stud. Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo were both solid innings-eaters who you would expect to give you around 200 innings and an ERA in the low 4's. It didn't quite work out that way, though, as Volquez had Tommy John surgery in August, and neither Cueto nor Harang reached his expected level. Arroyo put up a fine 15-13 record with a 3.84 ERA, and the Reds finally saw Homer Bailey demonstrate some of that boatload of talent he put on display in the minors, going 6-1 with a 1.70 ERA over his last nine starts.
The expectations put on this year's staff are a little more muted. Harang, who posted a 6-14 record with a 4.21 ERA in 2010, will be the Opening Day starter for the fifth straight season. He wasn't as bad as his record indicates in '09 - he suffered from a lack of run support and defensive help last year - but the Reds hope the big right-hander can do a lot better than he did given his $12 million salary in 2010. Cueto is still just 23 years old, and unlike last season, did not pitch in winter ball this year (nor did he have the World Baseball Classic like last season). So there is hope that he will continue to show flashes of being an ace more frequently as he develops. Arroyo is still a rubber-armed pitcher who will probably give you 200 innings with an ERA around 4.00 to 4.50. And Bailey will look to build on his late-season success from '09 and turn himself into the #1 or #2 pitcher the Reds have been hoping he would be. It's a staff full of possibilities that could be very good, but could just as easily be a big disappointment.
The fifth starter spot will likely be won by either Micah Owings or Matt Maloney, with Justin Lehr and Mike Lincoln having an outside shot at the spot. Owings is known more for his hitting than his pitching, but hopefully the addition of former Diamondbacks pitching coach Bryan Price will help Owings rediscover the success he had for the Dbacks back in 2007. Maloney has had enough minor league success (52-34, 3.29 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9) that he seems like he could be a good choice for the fifth starter spot, but he'll have to figure out how to pitch at the big league level as his he was hit hard in seven starts in the Majors in '09. Lehr and Lincoln appear to be in camp mainly to provide competition.
The one name not mentioned so far is Aroldis Chapman. The 22-year Cuban defector was a highly sought-after free agent during the off-season whom the Reds managed to surprise just about everybody and sign. Some question the intelligence of spending $30 million on an unknown like Chapman, but the fact that the money is spread over 10 years lowers the risk of the deal dramatically for the Reds. It’s rare that a team like the Reds has a chance to outbid the league for a talent like Chapman, so when the opportunity presented itself, they had to take it. Chapman is reportedly throwing an easy 97 MPH this spring and his control has been better than expected, but even with those reports, it is unlikely that he’ll start the season in the Majors. He’s still fairly raw, and with the way the contract is structured, it actually makes sense for the Reds to hold him back in the minors for at least a year. Still, don’t be surprised if the Reds bring him up later this season, especially if they don’t get much production out of the 5th spot in the rotation.
Bullpen
The bullpen is good, if not great. Closer Francisco Cordero has seen his strikeouts dip in each of his first two seasons with the Reds, but he remains effective, closing out 39 of 43 save opportunities in 2009. He is supported in the bullpen by hard-throwing Nick Masset, ageless left-hander Arthur Rhodes, diminutive Daniel Ray Herrera, and solid bounceback candidate Jared Burton. The remaining spots in the bullpen are likely to be left to the losers in the race for the 5th spot in the rotation, though lefty Bill Bray could sneak into the pen if he has full recovered from Tommy John surgery last spring. Overall, it's strong bullpen. Cordero, Masset, Rhodes, and Burton are all hard throwers and junk-balling left-hander Herrera can be brought in to mix things up.
In The System
The Reds have a pretty good stockpile of young talent in the minors. There don’t appear to be any superstars besides Chapman, but there is a good amount of depth. For a system that recently graduated Votto, Bruce, Cueto, and Bailey to the Majors, they may not need superstars, but having depth will increase their options for the future.
The top prospect in the system is Chapman, who many believe to be a top-10 prospect in all of baseball. The Reds also drafted Mike Leake out of Arizona State last June. He’s a polished right-hander who could find himself in the Majors later this season if he handles the minors well. It is more likely, though, that he’ll be around to replace Harang or Arroyo in 2011 if their options aren’t picked up by the team.
On the offensive side, Todd Frazier has been getting good reviews from scouts after a strong 2009 campaign, but he is without a true position at this point. Yonder Alonso has an impressive strikeout-to-walk ratio, but questions about his power and ability to hit left-handers, as well as the fact that he is blocked at 1B behind Votto make it unlikely that he’ll see much action in the Majors in 2010.
The most likely prospects to see time in Cincinnati this season are Chris Heisey, who had a breakout season in Double-A last year and could be used in left field by the Reds if the current options don’t pan out, and Juan Francisco, who has incredible power but not much plate discipline. Francisco is a third baseman, and given Rolen's recent health history, it is likely that we’ll see Francisco in the Majors for some portion of the year in ’10. Of course, that could be scary since the 22-year old made 39 errors at the hot corner in 2009.
Miscellaneous
Dusty Baker is in the last year of a 3-year/$10.5 million contract as manager of the Reds, and it’s hard to imagine him being brought back in 2011 if the Reds can’t put a winning team on the field this year. That means Baker’s going to have his work cut out for him. It’ll be interesting to see how he handles a mostly young team if they don’t get off to a good start. He’s got to feel like Cincinnati might be his last stop as a manager, especially if he can’t turn them into a winner after pundits have been predicting one for three years now. The pressure is definitely on him to perform.
Conclusion
The Reds have been playing the "just one more year away" game for a couple of years now, but impatient owner Bob Castellini may not tolerate another losing season this year. They are a team on the cusp of a major improvement, but it is going to take several players outplaying their projections for 2010 to be their year. The addition of Rolen in the clubhouse seems to have brought a new attitude and work ethic to a team that seemed lackadaisical when Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn were the big men on campus. Whether that will translate into wins remains to be seen.
Posted on 09 March 2010 by Jeff Sullivan
Follow along with this stream as we check out what's going on in every camp for every team in baseball. Updates will be provided on a division-by-division basis.
